ConDig (05-Mar-26) Home builders in the United States expect a mix of demographic shifts, economic pressures and technological changes to shape housing demand and the broader home building industry over the next decade, according to results from the latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).
The survey asked builders to evaluate the long-term impact of 14 major trends and structural forces on the health of the housing market.
Among the factors expected to negatively affect housing demand and industry conditions over the next 10 years, builders cited rising government debt as the most significant concern, with 82% of respondents expecting it to have a strong or somewhat negative impact.
Demographic trends were also seen as a major headwind. Declining fertility rates were cited by 78% of respondents, while 67% pointed to declining marriage rates as another potential drag on housing demand. Economic concerns also featured prominently, with 70% highlighting the long-term inflation outlook and 61% identifying energy costs as negative factors for the industry.
Despite these concerns, builders also identified several structural trends that could support demand and improve industry conditions.
An aging housing stock was the most widely cited positive factor, with 73% of respondents saying it will benefit the industry over the next decade by driving renovation, replacement and new construction. Changes in working patterns were also seen as supportive, with 65% of builders pointing to the continued shift toward remote work as a positive driver for housing demand.
Emerging technologies and new construction methods were also viewed as opportunities. More than half of builders (52%) said artificial intelligence could have a positive impact on the industry, while 45% highlighted modular and panelized construction as potential drivers of improved productivity and affordability.
Longer-term demographic shifts could also provide support. About 39% of respondents said an aging population may boost demand for certain types of housing and residential development.
“Builders are clearly thinking beyond the short-term outlook and are focusing on the forces that will shape housing demand for years to come,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “While long-term demographic trends and fiscal pressures are viewed as headwinds, builders also see meaningful opportunities tied to an aging housing stock, evolving work patterns and emerging technologies that can offer growth opportunities and improve productivity and affordability.”
“These findings underscore the complex outlook facing the housing market, as builders weigh the long-term risks alongside opportunities for innovation and adaptation in response to shifting consumer needs,” said Jason Orvosh, chair of NAHB’s Young Professionals Committee. “Especially for those builders at the early stages of their careers, these factors will shape the market for years to come and offer insights into the future of the housing market.”