ConDig (09-Mar-26) Nonresidential construction planning in the United States slowed in February, suggesting a continued normalization after the surge in project activity seen in the second half of 2025, according to the latest data from Dodge Construction Network.
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), a leading indicator of nonresidential building activity, declined 7.3% in February to 250.0 (2000=100), down from a downwardly revised January reading of 269.8.
Both major components of the index lost ground during the month. Commercial planning fell by 8.9%, while institutional planning slipped by 4.0%.
“Planning momentum continued to normalize in February after a surge in activity in the back half of 2025,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network.
She added that while near-term uncertainty remains a challenge for builders, the broader project pipeline remains healthy.
“Elevated risks around costs, labor and geopolitics will continue to constrain builder confidence in the near-term, but the robust planning pipeline suggests an acceleration in construction spending in 2027,” Martin said.
Commercial and institutional sectors slow
Commercial planning momentum weakened across nearly all segments in February, with warehouses the only sector to show continued growth.
Institutional planning also declined broadly, with public buildings experiencing the largest drop during the month.
Despite the overall slowdown, several sectors continue to show strong planning activity, including retail stores, recreational facilities, data centers and healthcare buildings.
On a year-over-year basis, however, the index remains firmly positive. The DMI rose 18.7% compared with February 2025.
Within that total, the commercial segment increased 12.3% year over year, or 4.4% when data center projects are excluded. Institutional planning climbed even more sharply, rising 34.0% compared with the same period last year.
Large projects drive planning pipeline
A total of 23 projects valued at $100 million or more entered the planning stage in February.
Among the largest commercial developments were several major data center projects. These included the $500 million CyrusOne Data Center in Whitney, Texas, the $448 million TX12 Data Center in San Antonio, Texas, and Buildings 5 and 6 of the QTS DFW2 Data Center in Wilmer, Texas, each valued at $290 million.
On the institutional side, the largest projects entering planning included the $400 million Phase 5A expansion of the Orange County Convention Center Grand Concourse in Orlando, Florida, a $254 million school replacement project in Upper Marlboro, Maryland, and the $250 million Langley F-22 dormitory building in McLean, Virginia.
The Dodge Momentum Index measures the value of nonresidential building projects entering the planning stage using a three-month moving average. Historically, the index has been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by 12 to 18 months.